Latin America’s aftermarket is also likely to grow faster than China’s, expanding 33% to $7.7 billion in 2033 from $5.8 billion in 2024.Ĭhina’s MRO slowdown dovetails with a broader trend occurring across the country’s commercial aviation sector as geopolitical tensions increasingly affect investment decisions of foreign companies in the world’s second-largest economy.

Should the Middle East grow as quickly as predicted, it will overtake China in 2030, becoming the world’s fourth-largest MRO market as China falls to fifth place (see page MRO7). For its part, MRO in the Middle East is forecast to grow about 67%, to $18.7 billion from $11.2 billion. MRO in India is starting from a lower baseline than China, but it nonetheless is forecast to more than double in size in percentage terms-to over $7.9 billion in the decade to 2033 from $3.6 billion now-while China will only grow 12% during that period.

While China is expected to remain among the world’s top five MRO markets, other emerging economies are projected to expand at a much brisker clip. China’s MRO market is set to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.13% over the next decade compared with 2.4% for the global average, according to the Aviation Week Network’s Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast data.

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